Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the presidency on Tuesday. Some Republicans have been rejoicing, seemingly convinced that he’ll win re-election. These celebratory Republicans are either religious zealots of the MAGA movement or completely politically blind. This is the best news Democrats have heard in months.
I know what you’re thinking. Democrats hate Trump. He incited a riot, got banned from Twitter, built a wall (kind of?), and pushed a form of nationalism that many consider fascist. How could Democrats be happy about a candidate that so directly contradicts their own values? It’s simple, really. Everyone knows Trump’s views. He never learned when to shut up and never kept a single card close to his chest.
Trump’s restraint (or lack thereof) seems to be getting worse. During his announcement, he supported the death penalty for anyone caught distributing drugs. Not just kingpins or leaders of major cartels. Anyone dealing drugs. It’s one thing to personally believe such a radical idea, but saying it out loud? Politically boneheaded.
Of course, I’m being harsh. He did win the presidency in 2016. While he lost in 2020, he had mobilized an incredibly spirited and devoted voter base. As we saw on January 6, it may have been it bit too spirited and devoted. If he can garner so much intensity from his voters, why is his candidacy so bad for the Republican party?
According to Reuters, President Biden’s approval ratings have dipped down to 37%. That’s really bad. It’s not difficult to win an election when the opposing party’s central figure has such low approval ratings. Even after the January 6 riot, Trump’s approval ratings were 34%. While that’s lower than 37%, it’s discouraging for Biden that his ratings aren’t much higher when he hasn’t had any January 6-level mistakes.
The disapproval for Biden is very different from the disapproval for Trump. Trump, naturally, was incredibly polarizing. He was extremely outspoken and divisive as president, frequently insulting those who disagreed with him. The media often attacked him for his more extreme policies, which only led to him insulting the press and doubling down on his statements. Trump’s extremism naturally led to strong, active hatred from leftists, moderates, and mainstream media organizations.
Biden, on the other hand, is not the outspoken type. He garners neither ardent approval nor hatred. The most common critique applied to him is his age. He often appears confused or disoriented, and his gaffs can frequently be seen all over social media. While this inevitably leads to mockery, it doesn’t rile up hatred per se.
The country hasn’t been in a great state since Biden became president. Whether fairly or unfairly, poor political or economic situations often lead to presidential disapproval from the citizens. Gas prices are higher than they’ve been in recent memory. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was disastrously botched. Russia’s been at war with Ukraine for months. Inflation is out of control. People are generally unhappy with the state of the world. This often leads to the opposing party winning the executive branch in the soonest election.
It should be as easy as it gets for a Republican to become president in 2024. Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, has become an increasingly popular prediction to be the next president. He’s adored by Floridians and non-Floridian Republicans alike. He seems to have earned the support of both Trump voters and other moderate conservative voters. From a Republican perspective, he stays in the spotlight for the right reasons. While he may be controversial, he seems like the type of candidate capable of winning an election.
Any advantage Republicans gained from Biden’s poor ratings is completely thrown out the window by a Trump candidacy. Trump supporters had seemingly embraced DeSantis as their next politician to back. This development, however, will pit the two politicians against each other. Trump supporters will no longer fully back DeSantis. Moderate conservatives will continue their hesitation and trepidation in supporting Trump.
Before Trump’s candidacy, there was a chance Republicans would profit off Biden’s lukewarm support from his voters. Trump’s return to the political spotlight, however, makes this lukewarm support a non-issue. A politician doesn’t need strong support if the average voter's hatred for his opponent is strong enough.
The 2024 election was looking like a potential battle between angry Republican voters and un-spirited Democrats with relatively weak support for their candidate. Trump just turned it into a battle between the MAGA movement’s small but mighty base and…the rest of the country. Great for Democrats, disastrous for Republicans.
Sources
1. https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/
2. https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
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